11 Comments
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dr block's avatar

Been with you long time. Keep it up

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Salvatore Norge's avatar

Big Dog Franzen doing big things in bitcoin.

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James W Hill's avatar

Caleb, given that there is a significant decay in the price appreciation in every successive bitcoin bull market, wouldn’t we expect Bitcoin to rise significantly less than 280% in this bull market? I feel like many investors made that mistake holding out for higher prices last cycle (including me).

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Caleb Franzen's avatar

Perhaps. Perhaps not. We've never had institutional onramps via ETFs before.

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Carsten Legaard's avatar

What do you mean when you write “this current cycle”?

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Vishal Golcha's avatar

Do you think the miners are getting hit because BTC demand >>>>>> BTC supply. The best of the miners is mining ~ 700 bitcoin per month, the HODL that they have is all the value basically and with this kind of demand from tradfi, miners don't have the same value add per say as to what was expected earlier. If you are tradfi and you want more and more BTC its either going to come from GBTC holders or people who have been hodling BTC not from the miners right now. BlackRock is trying to get 6000 BTC per day that's 25x of what the best miner produces per month.

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Vishal Golcha's avatar

TradFi gets retail hooked -> Tradfi sells BTC to the new buyers -> tradfi stops buying -> new buyers spooked -> things go down 10-15 % -> TradFi gets back in ?

The rational long term hodler might sell if there is no recessionary indication, put some stuff into ETH.

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Caleb Franzen's avatar

I don't agree with this take, sorry Vishal.

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Vishal Golcha's avatar

Nothing to be sorry about, i am also trying to look for data to support my hypothesis :)

Thanks for your research !

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Vishal Golcha's avatar

*25x of what all miners are doing per day

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Mar 10, 2024
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Caleb Franzen's avatar

Bitcoin goes through bull markets (typically corresponding with a halving cycle) and bear markets (which typically begin ~18 months after the halving).

My $175,000 price target for this cycle is a projection about the peak price that Bitcoin will trade in THIS bull market, rather than saying it WILL happen by THIS date (because I don't have a crystal ball to know when BTC will peak).

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