12 Comments
User's avatar
DM's avatar

Fantastic analysis. Intellectual honesty is rare these days. Can you comment on two points that are making me slightly more bullish: (1) new orders minus inventories in the pmi are up a lot and part time employment (which usually leads full time employment) is also up. Thanks.

Expand full comment
Matt Montanye's avatar

Great write up bro, really appreciate how in depth you go with nuance. Lets hope we get good data going forward 🙏🏻

Expand full comment
Alethea Lawson's avatar

Thank you so much Caleb! You did an excellent job on this report.

Expand full comment
Ludvík Sokol's avatar

Jumped at the end immediately 😁

Expand full comment
Peter Sea's avatar

Great food for thought. It emphasizes that we are in a phase where the only thing you can be sure of is that nothing lasts for ever 🧐 Monitoring the markets with the help of your insight is key!

Expand full comment
Been Far's avatar

What a beautiful piece of writing! Thank you.

Expand full comment
Matthieu's avatar

Thanks, nice point of view as usual. Trend is your friend until the end :) and we are at all time highs

Expand full comment
Jacob's avatar

Great write up.

What is critical, and where you really excel, is avoiding over-reliance on only macro outlook. Combining a macro outlook with price action / data points is how you can have success as an investor. This is why I've subscribed for several years now. Your ability to combine technical analysis with overarching macro themes is great when most analysts end up in one camp or the other.

Expand full comment
Glenn W. Anderson's avatar

Great analysis! I am spending the afternoon contemplating the degree to which your observations are relevant to my specific investment objectives. Fantastic stuff, Caleb, worth 100 times the cost of subscription.

Expand full comment
Chris Kopp's avatar

Excellent article.

Expand full comment
Dorte Jelstrup's avatar

Many important insights in this one! Thanks a lot, Caleb! I love the intellectual honesty and the way that you let objective data guide and reshape your outlook and perspectives!

Expand full comment
ben's avatar

Great one ☝️

Expand full comment