Everything depends on recession dynamics, and I am on the record of stating that there's a substantial risk of a recession in 2023. The market is loving the increased likelihood of a soft landing, disinflation, and a labor market that can be characterized as resilient (on the aggregate). Hey, maybe the Fed can pull this thing off and the market can shrug off my concerns around the Fed's balance sheet dynamics. I'm open to either scenario, but I still think risks remain to the downside. Whether or not we break below the October 2022 lows is uncertain.
Great article Caleb, do you expect any new SPX lows late 23 or early 24 ? Darius dale speaking of goldi lock problem is also considerably interesting
Thank you, Max! Appreciate your support.
Everything depends on recession dynamics, and I am on the record of stating that there's a substantial risk of a recession in 2023. The market is loving the increased likelihood of a soft landing, disinflation, and a labor market that can be characterized as resilient (on the aggregate). Hey, maybe the Fed can pull this thing off and the market can shrug off my concerns around the Fed's balance sheet dynamics. I'm open to either scenario, but I still think risks remain to the downside. Whether or not we break below the October 2022 lows is uncertain.