2 Comments

Nice write up. thanks!

RE: Bitcoin, we might want to move past the "crypto-enthusiast" lens and apply a more "real-world" lens to future price projections. The approval of spot ETFs was both a blessing and a curse. It brought in many more new buyers and owners who are not necessarily HODLers who will buy the dip en masse...unless they see a strong reason to do so. Without any data to back up this POV, I would contend that most of the trading volume in BTC is spot ETFs and it is dependent on AUM flows in these ETFs. US investors of all ages, retirement funds etc...they are not diamond hands and laser eyes...they will not see a chart like this and jump all in. They will move in and out of BTC based on broader macro signals and asset allocation goals. At this time I own BTC as a geopolitical hedge...will evaluate what to do with my position in Q1 2025...based on geopolitics at that time..based on the macro signals of that time.

Cheers and thanks again for a very nice write up! Keep them coming please.

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Timely bullishness!

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