"In total, that’s more than $3.6Bn in outflows from Grayscale. Yet during that same period, net inflows into all spot Bitcoin ETFs are $594M." Does this mean that inflows are $594M per day into all Bitcoin ETF's? Or in total for that 11-day period?
Thanks for clarifying, my friend. Inflows into the ETF’s seem a bit weak IMO. The ETF’s are sort of a proxy in my mind for overall BTC adoption. I’d like to see that number higher. Not only does it represent adoption, but indicates that concentration is falling - something I am weary of, TBH. I don’t think high concentrations of BTC is good for the overall market.
Valid concerns, but keep in mind that we had these 5-straight days of net outflows:
• 3/19 = -$146M
• 3/20 = -$322M
• 3/21 = -$318M
• 3/22 = -$33M
• 3/25 = -$158M
Generally, expect net flow dynamics to be a function of price as well as the Grayscale outflows. With BTC consolidating from March 14th through the 20th, I'm not surprised to see the weak data (because I would agree with you that it has been weak over the past 11 days).
So if the economy is strong and not inflationary as reflected by ebullient equities, then why would it make sense for BTC to be hitting ATHs? Oh, it’s reflecting fiat debasement, fiscal dominance and coming financial repression? Now THAT would explain why BTC, gold, and SPX are all rocketing higher.
Not sure I understand your question/comment, Dan, or whether or not you're being facetious lol either way, a few points:
1. I'm not a Keynesian, where growth/strong economics are linked to inflation.
2. M2 has been contracting for 2 years, the opposite of fiat debasement.
3. The same goes for credit decelerating over the past 2 years.
4. Fiscal dynamics are certainly accretive to the current uptrend.
5. Instead of just recognizing that the assets you mentioned are at ATH's, it's also important to recognize the pace of their trends/growth rates in order to get a full picture for the contributing factors to how we got where we are today.
If the USD is not being debased, then why is gold at an ATH? Why has it been rising along with stocks for the past 18 months? And why have all other non-correlated assets rallied together for the past 6 months? If the economy is strong and corporate earnings are great and rising, AND you can get 5% in tbills, then why would anyone buy gold which yields nothing?
And to my point, gold has been rising, but at a significantly slower pace than equities/crypto. So there is rising demand for gold, but not nearly as much demand as for risk assets.
So gold is rising because real interest rates have been falling? Except for the past 18 months, 10-year real interest rates have risen from 1% to 2%…a doubling! Oh, you meant the front end? That one went from 0% to over 3% in the last 18 months. Surely gold should have tanked as real rates have skyrocketed.
Dan, lose the aggressive & sarcastic tone so that I know we are having an adult conversation. 10-year real yields peaked in October 2023 and have fallen drastically since then. Guess what has happened over these past 6 months? Dollar-denominated assets have risen drastically, particularly those without cash flows (crypto & gold, notably). Meanwhile, cash-flowing dollar-denominated assets have also done extremely well.
I am late to this article, but agreed with most of the material you presented. I will say, it is bad optics to criticize another Substack user in the comments for their tone and implying they are not being an adult. Especially since it is the exact same tone you utilize in most of your articles against so-called "Doomers". Just gives the sense that you have thin skin if someone challenges your positions on topics.
Ok, sorry for the tone, I’m just struggling to make sense of the data you present. So now if I understand correctly, as long as real yields continue to fall, gold and crypto should do well, along with risk assets that don’t generate current income. How low will real rates go? Is M2 growth going to remain negative going forward? Doesn't that require the government to exercise fiscal restraint?
بسیارعالی
"In total, that’s more than $3.6Bn in outflows from Grayscale. Yet during that same period, net inflows into all spot Bitcoin ETFs are $594M." Does this mean that inflows are $594M per day into all Bitcoin ETF's? Or in total for that 11-day period?
Hey Gary, appreciate the opportunity to clarify and apologize for the confusing language... I can see how I could've worded that better.
From the period between March 14th and the present, aggregate net inflows are $594M.
Therefore, we can say that daily net inflows, on average, have been $54M/day over the past 11 trading sessions.
Thanks for clarifying, my friend. Inflows into the ETF’s seem a bit weak IMO. The ETF’s are sort of a proxy in my mind for overall BTC adoption. I’d like to see that number higher. Not only does it represent adoption, but indicates that concentration is falling - something I am weary of, TBH. I don’t think high concentrations of BTC is good for the overall market.
Valid concerns, but keep in mind that we had these 5-straight days of net outflows:
• 3/19 = -$146M
• 3/20 = -$322M
• 3/21 = -$318M
• 3/22 = -$33M
• 3/25 = -$158M
Generally, expect net flow dynamics to be a function of price as well as the Grayscale outflows. With BTC consolidating from March 14th through the 20th, I'm not surprised to see the weak data (because I would agree with you that it has been weak over the past 11 days).
But yet here we are still at $70k.
Not too shabby imo.
Yes, we are still at $70K. So, someone is buying (Saylor??). What are your thoughts on concentration? Something to watch? No big deal? Just curious.
Solid analysis and data bro! Really liked that addition of the price diffusion index. Cheers champ 🤝🏻
Great corporate profits chart!
My report last week looked at various leading indicators that are showing improving rate of change in their y/y growth rate as well.
Great signs for the economic and hence corporate profit outlook...stocks following earnings over the long run.
So if the economy is strong and not inflationary as reflected by ebullient equities, then why would it make sense for BTC to be hitting ATHs? Oh, it’s reflecting fiat debasement, fiscal dominance and coming financial repression? Now THAT would explain why BTC, gold, and SPX are all rocketing higher.
Not sure I understand your question/comment, Dan, or whether or not you're being facetious lol either way, a few points:
1. I'm not a Keynesian, where growth/strong economics are linked to inflation.
2. M2 has been contracting for 2 years, the opposite of fiat debasement.
3. The same goes for credit decelerating over the past 2 years.
4. Fiscal dynamics are certainly accretive to the current uptrend.
5. Instead of just recognizing that the assets you mentioned are at ATH's, it's also important to recognize the pace of their trends/growth rates in order to get a full picture for the contributing factors to how we got where we are today.
Cheers
If the USD is not being debased, then why is gold at an ATH? Why has it been rising along with stocks for the past 18 months? And why have all other non-correlated assets rallied together for the past 6 months? If the economy is strong and corporate earnings are great and rising, AND you can get 5% in tbills, then why would anyone buy gold which yields nothing?
Because gold has an inverse relationship with real interest rates.
And to my point, gold has been rising, but at a significantly slower pace than equities/crypto. So there is rising demand for gold, but not nearly as much demand as for risk assets.
So gold is rising because real interest rates have been falling? Except for the past 18 months, 10-year real interest rates have risen from 1% to 2%…a doubling! Oh, you meant the front end? That one went from 0% to over 3% in the last 18 months. Surely gold should have tanked as real rates have skyrocketed.
Dan, lose the aggressive & sarcastic tone so that I know we are having an adult conversation. 10-year real yields peaked in October 2023 and have fallen drastically since then. Guess what has happened over these past 6 months? Dollar-denominated assets have risen drastically, particularly those without cash flows (crypto & gold, notably). Meanwhile, cash-flowing dollar-denominated assets have also done extremely well.
I am late to this article, but agreed with most of the material you presented. I will say, it is bad optics to criticize another Substack user in the comments for their tone and implying they are not being an adult. Especially since it is the exact same tone you utilize in most of your articles against so-called "Doomers". Just gives the sense that you have thin skin if someone challenges your positions on topics.
Ok, sorry for the tone, I’m just struggling to make sense of the data you present. So now if I understand correctly, as long as real yields continue to fall, gold and crypto should do well, along with risk assets that don’t generate current income. How low will real rates go? Is M2 growth going to remain negative going forward? Doesn't that require the government to exercise fiscal restraint?