I still think the May 1st meeting is in play for the first 25bps cut, and if you look at SOFR swaps that market also implies one 25bps cut by May.
We'll have three more CPI prints before that meeting, and I believe the March & April readings will have a 2 handle at the front. It will be difficult for the FOMC to remain this hawkish & restrictive if that transpires.
I agree with your assessment. I could see them cutting in May if we see ongoing disinflation and a moderate softening in the labor market. Tough part is that the latest NFP data was a blowout report (and last month's job figures were even revised higher).
If it was up to me, I think the Fed should have cut yesterday.
Great analysis. Really enjoyed this read Caleb!
Epic. Thank you James!
I still think the May 1st meeting is in play for the first 25bps cut, and if you look at SOFR swaps that market also implies one 25bps cut by May.
We'll have three more CPI prints before that meeting, and I believe the March & April readings will have a 2 handle at the front. It will be difficult for the FOMC to remain this hawkish & restrictive if that transpires.
I agree with your assessment. I could see them cutting in May if we see ongoing disinflation and a moderate softening in the labor market. Tough part is that the latest NFP data was a blowout report (and last month's job figures were even revised higher).
If it was up to me, I think the Fed should have cut yesterday.
I remain appreciative of your work and teaching 🙏
Thanks for your support, Shawn. Really glad to hear this!