Great writing Caleb. Your common sense approach, to see whole market based on data, couldn't be any more accurate.
But will argue regarding real estate guesstimate, typical well do buyers are not concerned with rates much , they know market and value ,they are looking for a better quality money can buy in location they need .Builders are not starving , they continue control price on what they produce "less is more ..expensive " approach, control cost by buying premium market at reduced rate.
Being reasonable in my books on achievement of 70 % + return from June in $NAIL telling all .
AlBo, thank you very much. Comments & feedback like this keep me super motivated to keep delivering research.
You make a fair point about builders, but I'd encourage you to look at data from Len Kiefer (Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac)... he has posted analysis recently showing how the implied P&I payments for a mortgage have increased from roughly $1,900/month at the beginning of the year to over $2,400 today. That's a +25% increase in 8 months!
It makes sense why builders are pulling back in this market until the market outlook becomes a bit clearer IMO.
Thanks for putting $NAIL on my radar. I wasn't familiar with it previously!
Great writing Caleb. Your common sense approach, to see whole market based on data, couldn't be any more accurate.
But will argue regarding real estate guesstimate, typical well do buyers are not concerned with rates much , they know market and value ,they are looking for a better quality money can buy in location they need .Builders are not starving , they continue control price on what they produce "less is more ..expensive " approach, control cost by buying premium market at reduced rate.
Being reasonable in my books on achievement of 70 % + return from June in $NAIL telling all .
AlBo, thank you very much. Comments & feedback like this keep me super motivated to keep delivering research.
You make a fair point about builders, but I'd encourage you to look at data from Len Kiefer (Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac)... he has posted analysis recently showing how the implied P&I payments for a mortgage have increased from roughly $1,900/month at the beginning of the year to over $2,400 today. That's a +25% increase in 8 months!
It makes sense why builders are pulling back in this market until the market outlook becomes a bit clearer IMO.
Thanks for putting $NAIL on my radar. I wasn't familiar with it previously!
Seems like most retail investors are anticipating another big drawdown, which could certainly mean the opposite will actually happen.
Very interesting times...