What are your thoughts on the #bigflip narrative I keep seeing on Twitter, basically that (ironically) disinflation is transitory, and that inflation will roar back and that the real bear market hasn't really started?
There's credibility to the #BigFlip hypothesis, but I don't have it as my base case. The monetary, fiscal, demand, and supply chain shocks from 2020-2022 are far behind us. As such, I don't see inflation re-accelerating to new highs.
The primary risk, in my opinion, is that inflation is stickier and decelerates slower than the market anticipates. Even still, I think the impacts of base effects and Shelter/OER after June 2023 will bring YoY inflation lower.
It's very possible that "the bear market hasn't really started", but I'd only agree with that because I see an enhanced risk of a recession in 2023. I'd recommend checking out my 2023 outlook (if you haven't already), where I outline the specific datapoints supporting my recession thesis.
GOAT. I’m a young investor and your weekly news letters have helped me navigate the market tremendously. I’ve learned a ton from you since initially subscribing to you just over a year ago. Cheers
What are your thoughts on the #bigflip narrative I keep seeing on Twitter, basically that (ironically) disinflation is transitory, and that inflation will roar back and that the real bear market hasn't really started?
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1623253168678109185?t=G4YVjkJBCJgpaT_9ahoveA&s=19
https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1623019667026595840?t=yRode2p5DWneM9GSeIzVHQ&s=19
There's credibility to the #BigFlip hypothesis, but I don't have it as my base case. The monetary, fiscal, demand, and supply chain shocks from 2020-2022 are far behind us. As such, I don't see inflation re-accelerating to new highs.
The primary risk, in my opinion, is that inflation is stickier and decelerates slower than the market anticipates. Even still, I think the impacts of base effects and Shelter/OER after June 2023 will bring YoY inflation lower.
It's very possible that "the bear market hasn't really started", but I'd only agree with that because I see an enhanced risk of a recession in 2023. I'd recommend checking out my 2023 outlook (if you haven't already), where I outline the specific datapoints supporting my recession thesis.
Best,
CF
Very informative! Great analysis and explanation. Thank you!
Appreciate the kind words! Glad to hear :)
Great analysis Caleb
Thank you Ethan!
GOAT. I’m a young investor and your weekly news letters have helped me navigate the market tremendously. I’ve learned a ton from you since initially subscribing to you just over a year ago. Cheers