Mar 12, 2023·edited Mar 12, 2023Liked by Caleb Franzen
This too shall pass ... banking system is way more stronger than 2007-2009, regulators have way more tools and processes to hand this relatively easy ... all shall be good.
Hey Mav, yes I'd agree with you. There's certainly a potential for the SVB situation to create a larger banking "crisis", but I think those fears are also overblown. In all likelihood, this will create stress and some distress, but I do believe that depositors at SVB will be made whole.
The point is, we're likely to see other unrelated entities exposed as naked swimmers in the months ahead. Each event that has occurred so far (Luna, 3AC, Celsius, BlockFi, FTX) were all somewhat related, and had the potential to trigger more dominos as a direct result of their failures. Thankfully, those impacts were relatively muted; however, each event poses a significant threat of triggering another failure. This one with SVB is likely the largest threat, thus far, to the broader system. Key word is "threat", which isn't necessarily imminent.
In 2007, I was the PR Manager for the Better Business Bureau serving Oregon and Southwest Washington. Our Business of the Year was the Bank of Clark County (Washington not Nevada). One of my duties was event planning for the entire awards luncheon.
This too shall pass ... banking system is way more stronger than 2007-2009, regulators have way more tools and processes to hand this relatively easy ... all shall be good.
Unless fear mongering & incorrect takes keep spreading like weed on social media, then it can get self fulfilling https://twitter.com/Maverick_Equity/status/1634563196593000448
Keep investing, keep, compounding ... the world has been through way more severe events than this
Hey Mav, yes I'd agree with you. There's certainly a potential for the SVB situation to create a larger banking "crisis", but I think those fears are also overblown. In all likelihood, this will create stress and some distress, but I do believe that depositors at SVB will be made whole.
The point is, we're likely to see other unrelated entities exposed as naked swimmers in the months ahead. Each event that has occurred so far (Luna, 3AC, Celsius, BlockFi, FTX) were all somewhat related, and had the potential to trigger more dominos as a direct result of their failures. Thankfully, those impacts were relatively muted; however, each event poses a significant threat of triggering another failure. This one with SVB is likely the largest threat, thus far, to the broader system. Key word is "threat", which isn't necessarily imminent.
So... you’ve been buying “defensive stocks”, any reason why you haven’t been buying inverse ETFs?
I have been long $SOXS and $TECS since late January and early February.
Oh? I was under the impression you had closed those positions. Thanks for clearing that up
https://twitter.com/CalebFranzen/status/1631709253302878237?s=20
Great piece Caleb, I really enjoyed this one. We really are in the thick of it
Thank you Tom! Indeed, we are. Hope you're well.
In 2007, I was the PR Manager for the Better Business Bureau serving Oregon and Southwest Washington. Our Business of the Year was the Bank of Clark County (Washington not Nevada). One of my duties was event planning for the entire awards luncheon.
A year later, the bank was shut down by the FDIC.
In fact, NPR even ran an entire Planet Money episode about it (no joke: https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102384657).
Sometimes, history doesn't just rhyme, it outright repeats itself.