You're Not Bullish Enough On Ethereum
Explaining My ETH Price Target
Investors,
In the last bull market, Bitcoin peaked at ~$69,000 on November 10th, 2021.
The digital asset then proceeded to fall -77.5% in the subsequent 12 months.
If we imagine the “unluckiest” investor of all-time, who bought Bitcoin on November 10th, 2021 and decided to dollar-cost average (DCA) into BTC every single day going forward, how do you think that investor has performed since then?
The answer is extremely well…
Over the course of the past 852 days, a DCA of $50/day would have a net cost basis of $42,600 and currently be worth a grand total of $99,476 (a net return of +133.5%).
🟢 Net cost basis
🟠 Net investment value
In other words, a Bitcoin investor with terrible timing but high conviction has 2.3x’d their investment over a 28-month window, significantly outpacing the returns of broader stock market indexes, Treasuries, or any other asset class. While they had to sit through short-term downside and volatility (particularly in the 2nd half of 2022, their returns since then have compensated them for their patience.
As we look at the market today and asses Bitcoin’s price structure, I see nothing bearish about this whatsoever.
Chartered Market Technicians (CMTs) would immediately recognize this as a base breakout, which is the exact opposite of bearish.
But CMTs are smart.
Super smart, in fact, and they recognize that nothing in the market is guaranteed and that the only thing we can control is how we manage risk.
Therefore, a CMT would look at this chart and come to the following conclusion:
“I will be bullish on Bitcoin so long as it stays above the green range.”
This allows for flexibility, an upside bias, and clear risk management.
Though I’m not a CMT, this is the school of thought that I subscribe to.
I’ve been bullish on Bitcoin as a long-term investment since mid-2020, when I transformed from a vehement critic and skeptic into a staunch proponent. My bias is (and has been) bullish on a long-term basis, though I’ve used TA & statistical analysis to be tactically bearish or defensive in certain circumstances.
Thankfully, I haven’t been tactically bearish in well over a year.
At this juncture, my belief is that the bull market is still in its early innings.
Likely no later than the 3rd or 4th inning, at most.
If my assessment is correct, what follows next are the following:
An exponential rally in Bitcoin with an influx of new retail investors.
A breadth expansion into alts, evidenced by a decline in BTC Dominance.
A sustained period of outperformance in Ethereum relative to Bitcoin (ETHBTC).
Why these three things?
Because every single bull market has been characterized by these dynamics.
This therefore begs the question, “how high can Ethereum go this cycle?”
I’ve been adamant about my $175k Bitcoin price target, but I’m finally going to share my cycle target for Ethereum in this report, along with updated analysis on current dynamics in the stock market. If you enjoy data-driven analysis and concise takeaways, I’d strongly encourage you to upgrade to a premium membership so that you can benefit from these weekly deep-dives (in addition to the free Saturday reports).
You’ll also be invited to our weekly investor calls and have full access to my long-form research publications here on Substack. As an independent analyst, I’m extremely appreciative of your support and I can’t believe that we’re coming up on the 3-year anniversary of when I started Cubic Analytics in May 2021.
Let’s begin…