You Need My Favorite Accumulation Signal

Investors,

I want to talk about Bitcoin and my favorite accumulation signal… but first, I want to thank each of you for your support & for your continued interest in my research at Cubic Analytics.

I know this market is super challenging and that the severity of this ongoing drawdown has been mentally taxing (tariff pun, sorry) and financially worrisome.

These are real dollar values… and the fact of the matter is that several trillions of dollars of wealth have been evaporated in record-breaking time, which has a real impact on our individual financial goals, our budgets, and our daily lives.

This leads me back to the whole purpose of my research, with the intention of sharing the key market dynamics, datapoints, and trends that I’m using to navigate the market and to make my own personal financial decisions on the off-chance that it has a positive impact on your own investing process.

For right or for wrong, I’m never afraid to share my data-backed conclusions or be willing to change my mind when the objective facts warrant an adjustment in my outlook/positioning.

I’ve been really warmed by your recent outreach, saying how my caution in mid-February and shift into an outright bearish stance in March helped many of you navigate the market and also save yourself a lot of money.

Especially after an outpour of comments about how much money we made in 2023 and 2024, I’m really proud of the research that I’ve been sharing with all of you, week after week.

At the end of the day, those of you who read my research and listened to my conclusions deserve all the credit for your actions, but I’m glad to know that my research is having a positive impact.

With that out of the way, let’s talk about Bitcoin’s long-term accumulation signal.

As a reminder, this report is completely free, so feel free to share it with anyone who you know that will benefit from it!

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The Accumulation Signal:

Let me be clear — this signal has not flashed yet.

But I always try to forecast future signals so that I (and you) can be aware of them in advance, ensuring that I’m mentally prepared to take advantage of the signal if/when they become a reality in the market.

Specifically, the signal that I want to highlight is the 18-month Williams%R indicator.

Why 18 for the length of the indicator on monthly candles?

It’s equal to 1.5 years, which makes it an effective long-term indicator!

Those of you who are long-time followers of my work will remember that I constantly highlighted this signal (and other long-term Williams%R signals) in 2022 as amazing long-term accumulation opportunities.

For example, here’s when I first shared this signal for Bitcoin in July 2022:

When Bitcoin triggered this signal, it was trading at $20k and fell as low as $15.5k before it eventually re-accelerated and the 18-month W%R crossed above the oversold threshold in March 2023 at $28.3k.

In other words, this indicator ensured that investors (like me) accumulated as much Bitcoin as possible in the $15.5k to $28.3k range over a 10-month window.

This signal was perfectly effective in 2012, 2014-2015, 2018-19, and in 2022-23.

It’s an original study that I’ve tried to popularize, and it’s effectiveness is crystal clear.

When this signal flashes, those you paid attention reaped the rewards.

So what is the signal saying today?

In order to become oversold, the 18-month W%R must cross below -80%.

It’s currently trading at -42%.

Due to the dynamic nature of this indicator, which is expected to evolve every single month depending on how the price action unfolds, we can’t decisively estimate what price Bitcoin will be once the 18-month W%R indicator becomes oversold.

The reason why is because we don’t know if it will become oversold in 4 months or in 12 months, and that timing will therefore impact the price at which BTC is considered oversold, per this indicator.

But that wasn’t a sufficient answer for me, so I decided to dig deeper…

As it turns out, the 18-month W%R oscillator has historically become oversold right around the time that Bitcoin retests its 200-week moving average cloud.

Where is the 200-week moving average cloud currently trading?

Between $45k and $50k.

Again, this 200-week moving average cloud is also a dynamic indicator, so the cloud will have a different value in 4 months and also in 12 months, but we can use these two in combination as a decisive buying opportunity once they trigger.

Either way, I unfortunately can’t tell you today with any degree of certainty what Bitcoin’s price will be when it becomes oversold, but what I can do is arm you with this indicator (which is free on TradingView or any other charting platform like ThinkorSwim) so that you can monitor it yourself.

Also, you can rest assured that when Bitcoin does trigger this signal, I’ll be screaming it from the mountain tops.

Another key thing that you should know is that this indicator is also super impactful for other assets too, like stock market indexes in the United States.

For example, here’s the 18-month Williams%R indicator applied to the S&P 500:

And here is is applied to the Nasdaq-100:

So whether you’re interested in Bitcoin, stocks, or both, I encourage you to keep this indicator in your back pocket and monitor it in the months and quarters ahead.

I want to be very clear, regardless of which asset you’re applying this indicator to, it is NOT a bottom signal — which is why I refer to it as an “accumulation” signal.

It’s an official signal to DCA with size, so long as the indicator remains oversold.

For now, we are still far from this signal triggering for Bitcoin and U.S. indices.

Maybe that changes in the coming months.

When it does, I’ll be acting upon it.

Best,

Caleb Franzen,
Founder of Cubic Analytics

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DISCLAIMER:

This report expresses the views of the author as of the date it was published, and are subject to change without notice. The author believes that the information, data, and charts contained within this report are accurate, but cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information.

The investment thesis, security analysis, risk appetite, and time frames expressed above are strictly those of the author and are not intended to be interpreted as financial advice. As such, market views covered in this publication are not to be considered investment advice and should be regarded as information only. The mention, discussion, and/or analysis of individual securities is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold said security.

Each investor is responsible to conduct their own due diligence and to understand the risks associated with any information that is reviewed. The information contained herein does not constitute and shouldn’t be construed as a solicitation of advisory services. Consult a registered financial advisor and/or certified financial planner before making any investment decisions.

Each investor is responsible to understand the investment risks of the market & individual securities, which is subjective and will also vary in terms of magnitude and duration.