Investors,
Despite Bitcoin’s massive rally above $35k, gaining more than +110% YTD, investors aren’t selling their Bitcoin. If anything, their conviction is growing larger. More specifically, 88.5% of all Bitcoin hasn’t been moved/sold/transferred in the past three months, according to this post from Dylan LeClair:
These charts, known as HODL waves, depict various cohorts of Bitcoin’s supply through categories of “age”. If an investor bought any positive amount of Bitcoin 15 months ago & immediately transferred it to cold storage (as one should), then continued to hold it, that amount of Bitcoin would be classified in the 1Y-2Y category because it hasn’t been moved/sold in 15 months. As such, HODL waves characterize how different Bitcoin investors are reacting & behaving with respect to changes in price, market dynamics, risk, etc., based on when the Bitcoin was last moved.
So when we look at the chart above, the takeaway is simple: Bitcoiners have such strong conviction in their asset that the vast majority (88.5% of them, to be specific) haven’t sold or moved any Bitcoin in the past 3 months — a period in which Bitcoin has gained more than +44% amidst a broader trend of being up +110% YTD.
Why?
Because they know that this is just the warm-up.
The 11.5% of investors who sold can be considered “weak hands” or speculative investors who made respectable gains & were pleased with the profits. However, the other 88.5% of Bitcoin investors are expressing their conviction that Bitcoin will eventually trade in the 6-figure range, if not higher. For this cohort, a rally from $26k to $35k is insignificant relative to where Bitcoin’s valuation will go in the long-term.
If you are part of this cohort, I believe that your patience will be rewarded. WGMI.
Based on the analysis from my mid-week emergency newsletter, I don’t think you’ll need to wait for too much longer… If you missed that brief report, read it here:
As we shift our focus to the equity markets for the sake of this report, I’m going to analyze price action from this past week. As I covered in yesterday’s report, the market had a phenomenal week, making significant gains with wide breadth and strong momentum thrusts on the back of solid earnings. Not great earnings, but earnings that are sufficient for a widespread market rally.
Many investors are wondering what happens next and if we are back in a risk-on market. That’s exactly what I’m going to focus on within this report, highlighting internal market data, specific indicators, & a unique study with a high success rate.
I’ll also be addressing what this means for the crypto market as a whole…