The Bifurcation of Risk
Investors,
The bifurcation between the stock market and Bitcoin continues.
In a week that saw macroeconomic data surprise to the upside, notably with Q3’25 real GDP growth coming in at +2.3% YoY and +4.3% QoQ annualized vs. estimates of +3.2%, the market has continued to grind higher.
The S&P 500 itself made new all-time highs on both Thursday & Friday, securing its highest weekly close ever, while the Dow Jones also secured its highest close ever.
But Bitcoin is unable to retain any upside momentum.
The digital asset has chopped in the mid-$80k range all week…
In fact, it’s been trading in that range for more than a month.
Many Bitcoin bulls continue to tell me that the asset is still in an uptrend because it hasn’t invalidated the lows from April 7, 2025, arguing that it’s produced a higher low.
First of all…
We don’t know if this is a higher low yet!
This chart could look a lot different over the next month.
Secondly…
When we look at Bitcoin on a relative basis vs. other risk assets, like the S&P 500, we can see a very different picture.
This is BTC/SPY:
On a relative basis vs. the S&P 500, Bitcoin peaked in July 2025, produced lower highs in October while BTCUSD produced new all-time highs, and is now making lower lows vs. those Q1’25 lows.
This is extremely important context.
If Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset (and it is), then Bitcoin’s underperformance and structural breakdowns relative to lower beta risk assets is giving us a warning.
At least for now.
Hopefully, an improvement takes place.
Hopefully, bulls are able to tighten their grip.
Hopefully, Bitcoin is able to reclaim its moving averages, like it did in mid-April.
But hope isn’t a strategy.
We need to see evidence of improvement.
Because right now, the weight of the evidence only suggests deterioration.
And that deterioration is producing outright bearish dynamics since early November.
I’ll continue to watch this market like a hawk and be willing to adapt if/when the rules-based system indicates that a shift is warranted.
Until then, all I feel confident to say right now is the following:
Stocks are in a bull market and experiencing broad-based uptrends.
Bitcoin/crypto are not in a bull market and continue to deteriorate.
As a reminder, I’d encourage you to read last week’s premium report where I shared an updated & in-depth perspective on my plans regarding Bitcoin:
Best,
Caleb Franzen,
Founder of Cubic Analytics
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