Sharing My Entire Portfolio
Investors,
In this report, I’ll be sharing a complete breakdown of my long-term investment portfolio, covering all of the individual positions, their portfolio weighting, and how I plan to navigate my portfolio construction going forward.
But first… some important analysis.
The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) is trading near multi-year lows and has continued to trend lower of the course of the past 24 months since peaking in Q1 2023.
While the bears have repeatedly cited the low VIX as a sign of complacency (and therefore a sign that the market is euphoric), I don’t make such judgements & simply recognize that there is an inverse correlation between volatility and the S&P 500.
As someone who relies heavily on trend-following dynamics, I can look at this chart and walk away with three primary conclusions:
The VIX is in a downtrend, making a series of lower lows and lower highs.
The stock market is in an uptrend, making higher lows and higher highs.
Until proven otherwise, this trend is likely to persist and is telling us how we should position ourselves within the market.
This is risk-on behavior, with unequivocal confirmation since the S&P 500 bottomed in Q4 2022. However, thorough analysis should not end with two-variable analysis.
If we rotate our focus to the most risky segment of the entire investment universe, we can look at $TOTAL.3, which is cryptocurrency market cap excluding BTC & ETH, and then take it a step further by removing stablecoins USDT & USDC.
After being in accumulation mode (below the red zone), the recent breakout in Q4’23 is indicative of a clear shift in behavior in which investors are clearly increasing their demand for the riskiest of risk assets. This is a classic Wyckoff Accumulation structure with a phase 2 breakout, signaling that even more bullish behavior is around the corner.
Ask yourself: if the riskiest of risk assets are displaying bullish behavior and likely to get even more bullish, amidst a stock market environment with low volatility and new all-time highs, then why is that a trend you would want to fight?
I know I don’t, but that’s just me.
In the remainder of this report, I’ll be providing a thorough breakdown of my long-term investment portfolio along with the key charts & market dynamics that are influencing my current outlook. As always, these Sunday reports are exclusive for premium members of Cubic Analytics, intended to provide exclusive alpha for both investors & traders alike.
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