Hey Caleb, there is one exception which may be worth looking at in further detail ... H2 2019 (the last time QT ended); we only came back to test the LTHRP due to the Covid sell-off, otherwise we would not have made it down that far. Excluding the March 2020 black swan, we would have touched the 100-week EMA (just as we have done these past 3 weeks) and then gradually climbed back up, until the full bonanza when QE restarted.
Ben Cowen is increasingly drawing comparisons with H2 2019 too, so I think there might be something to the analogy 👍🏼
(this would also confuse a LOT of people, because they think this bear market has to be the same length as every other "4-year cycle" bear market, but 2019 was essentially a mini bear market with a flash crash w/c 9 Mar 2020 that recovered back above the 100-week EMA within 4 weeks)
don't you think approx. $38k is a bit low? It's not necessarily about the price but because long-term holder realized price includes all supply, even coins unlikely to ever move again. To me it seems like the metric is more of a historical / “book-value” average than a representation of coins that are actually liquid or realistically in play. I think the average cost basis should be somewhat diluted by decades-old coins, acquired at extremely low prices (or even free upon mining), which drags the average down. Even Satoshi's coins are in there. To my knowledge the definitions used by those on-chain analytics don't exclude coins based on any age threshold beyond 155 days, so even those multi-year dormant coins remain part of the LTH pool. Basically any UTXO that hasn’t moved, because nobody knows exactly which early coins belong to Satoshi, early miners, or how many of them are truly “lost”.
Maybe the AVIV / true market mean will give a better view on this and when Bitcoin is truly undervalued? Very curious to hear your thoughts on this.
I am just glad to be a permabull.
Hey Caleb, there is one exception which may be worth looking at in further detail ... H2 2019 (the last time QT ended); we only came back to test the LTHRP due to the Covid sell-off, otherwise we would not have made it down that far. Excluding the March 2020 black swan, we would have touched the 100-week EMA (just as we have done these past 3 weeks) and then gradually climbed back up, until the full bonanza when QE restarted.
Ben Cowen is increasingly drawing comparisons with H2 2019 too, so I think there might be something to the analogy 👍🏼
(this would also confuse a LOT of people, because they think this bear market has to be the same length as every other "4-year cycle" bear market, but 2019 was essentially a mini bear market with a flash crash w/c 9 Mar 2020 that recovered back above the 100-week EMA within 4 weeks)
Hey Caleb,
don't you think approx. $38k is a bit low? It's not necessarily about the price but because long-term holder realized price includes all supply, even coins unlikely to ever move again. To me it seems like the metric is more of a historical / “book-value” average than a representation of coins that are actually liquid or realistically in play. I think the average cost basis should be somewhat diluted by decades-old coins, acquired at extremely low prices (or even free upon mining), which drags the average down. Even Satoshi's coins are in there. To my knowledge the definitions used by those on-chain analytics don't exclude coins based on any age threshold beyond 155 days, so even those multi-year dormant coins remain part of the LTH pool. Basically any UTXO that hasn’t moved, because nobody knows exactly which early coins belong to Satoshi, early miners, or how many of them are truly “lost”.
Maybe the AVIV / true market mean will give a better view on this and when Bitcoin is truly undervalued? Very curious to hear your thoughts on this.
Thanks in advance and keep up the great work.
I don't know what "a bit low" means.
That's subjective.
A bit low to me is different than a bit low to you, which is different than a bit low to someone else.
That's why objective data is truth, not my subjective opinion.
All of the things you mentioned were true in last bear markets, and yet price tagged the LTHRP every single time.
Maybe this time is different?
Sure, maybe. But then only time will tell... irrespective of my subjective view on what is a bit too low vs. what isn't too low.
Got you. Thanks.