I'm Embarrassed
Investors,
I’m embarrassed.
Not because of anything I’ve done or because of my analysis…
But because of how feeble investors have become.
I’m embarrassed for the collective state of affairs, but this is actually something that I’ve been feeling for quite some time — investors have become weak, scared, & fragile.
In turn, the fragility of the investor base causing a deterioration in their performance.
I’m watching fundamental investors (whatever that means) get outperformed.
I’m watching big brain macroeconomists continue to miss the plot.
I’m watching technicians find every excuse to doubt this market.
I’m watching new investors get chopped to bits.
I’m watching seasoned investors get misguided.
It’s a shit show, left and right…
Excuse my language, but this is a serious problem.
So who is actually winning and thriving in this market?
Great question, Caleb the Narrator!
The investors who aren’t doing anything.
The investors who are observe new data & market dynamics, but continue to sit tight.
Those who are embracing “less is more” are thriving, which is something that I’ve been highlighting for quite some time, even in November 2024:
Since that post, just 10 weeks ago, asset prices have performed well:
S&P 500 ($SPY): +1.65%
Nasdaq-100 ($QQQ): +3.0%
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD): +37.1%
While stock market returns could be viewed as “underwhelming”, there’s nothing shameful at all about the Nasdaq-100 generating +3.0% returns in 10 weeks! If we extrapolate these returns for a full year by annualizing the data, it’s the equivalent of +15.9% for a calendar year, decisively outperforming the index’s typical annual returns.
Even the S&P 500’s 10-week return of +1.65% is tracking towards an annualized return of +8.8%, which is almost exactly the average annual performance of the index since 1950.
Don’t even get me started on Bitcoin, up +37% in 10 weeks. You do the math.
Those who are doing nothing are doing just fine.
Not only are they performing well, but they’re preserving their mental capital, reducing their exposure to stress, and getting an opportunity to enjoy life!
Oddly enough, I’m not supposed to tell you this.
The incentive of a newsletter writer or an analyst is to increase the reader’s dependency on their work & to stress the importance of knowing what’s behind the paywall.
I’m doing the opposite by telling you that my analysis isn’t even necessary (right now) if you just stay invested and keep riding the wave.
In fact, my recent analysis over the past month can be summarized in just a few words: “stop overthinking everything”.
My recent newsletter titles have cumulatively pointed to this conclusion:
“Everything Is Oversold”, on December 23, 2024.
“Opportunity Is Knocking”, on December 30, 2024.
“Pain Is Good”, on January 6, 2025.
“Corrections Are Painful”, on January 12, 2025.
“Focusing On What Matters”, on January 18, 2025.
“Avoid These Narratives”, on January 19, 2025.
All of my work & analysis is there, explaining why I believed the market deserved (and continues to deserve) the benefit of the doubt.
And now the S&P 500 is at new all-time highs, just like that.
Two massive up weeks, erasing five weeks of a moderate & orderly consolidation.
In case you didn’t know, uptrends & bull markets typically make new highs.
If uptrends are just a series of higher highs and higher lows (they are), then the S&P 500 once again reaffirmed the validity of the ongoing bull market.
As a result of patience and simply doing nothing, my long-term equity portfolio is now trading at new all-time highs as well, which means I’ve quite literally never been wealthier than I am right now… all because I did nothing.
I practice what I preach and I preached the need for patience.
The results speak for themselves.
So where do we go from here?
That’s what this report will be dedicated to exploring.
I have one new S&P 500 study to share with you, in addition to an in-depth discussion and review of stock market dynamics & trends, and then a variety of crypto charts too.
In total, this report contains 19 never-before-seen charts, exclusive for the 960+ investors who are premium members of Cubic Analytics.
To each of the premium members who support my work and make it possible for me to be an independent analyst without the need for sponsors, advertisers, or affiliates, I’m extremely grateful for your continued interest & support for my work.
Let’s begin.