How I Generated These Returns

Investors,

I’m up +16% YTD and +31% YoY in my traditional brokerage account.

How have I achieved this?

• I’ve trusted that asset prices will remain in an uptrend.

• I’ve trusted that disinflation will stay intact & allow for rate cuts.

• I’ve trusted that the U.S. economy will continue to be resilient & dynamic.

• I’ve trusted that S&P 500 earnings will continue to grow & fundamentals will improve.

Then I recognized that the path of least resistance was for asset prices to remain in an uptrend and I simply studied which assets tend to perform the best during broad-based uptrends and bull markets.

The conclusion: buy & hold tech, more tech, even more tech, and a bunch of Bitcoin.

And that’s exactly what I’ve been doing since the end of 2022 when I was publicly pounding the table on GOOGL, AMZN and BTC, and then really picked up the pace throughout 2023.

Every weekend, I sit in front of a blank screen and write my thoughts on the market, dissecting hundreds of datapoints, charts, and indicators to analyze the economy, the stock market, and Bitcoin.

Every weekend, I outline my process of how I see the world through data.

Every weekend, I share the exact analysis that I’m using to make investment decisions.

Whether you’re a free member of Cubic Analytics or a premium member, I’m super appreciative to have you on this journey with me, as we all try to figure out the best way to navigate an uncertain future.

Here are some quick thoughts on new market data from this week:

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Regarding inflation, it’s becoming evident that the disinflationary trend is at risk.

Specifically, I want to highlight the chart below from the Cleveland Fed, showing:

🟠 Median CPI inflation YoY
🔵 Trimmed-mean CPI inflation YoY
🟢 Headline CPI inflation YoY
🟣 Core CPI inflation YoY

Every single one of these datapoints accelerated vs. the prior month results.

Taking it another step further, every single one of these inflation measurements is higher than they were in both March and April 2025, before tariffs were announced or came into effect.

Median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI are both higher YoY than they were in February!

Unequivocally, we can look at the objective data and say that disinflation is at risk.

Yet, I still see people on my timeline talking about how tariffs are deflationary.

Well, if they were deflationary, why aren’t we seeing deflation or YoY disinflation?

Instead, these commentators are pointing to the recent PPI data to prove their point.

However, this is completely erroneous because PPI data focuses on domestic production and has minimal influence from imports, which tariffs are a tax on.

So the PPI data is the least impacted by tariffs!

Thankfully, the economic data continues to be resilient & dynamic.

Industrial production just came in at +0.3% MoM vs. estimates of +0.1%.

Initial unemployment claims came in at 222k, significantly below estimates of 233k.

Philly Fed Manufacturing jumped to 15.9, one of its highest readings of 2025 and significantly higher than any result from mid-2022 through the end of 2024.

Retail sales data continued to show strong results, also surpassing expectations.

The advanced retail sales figure came in at +0.6% MoM vs. estimates of +0.2% and prior month results of -0.9%, also coming in at an annual growth rate of +3.5%.

Offset by an annual inflation rate of +2.7% for headline CPI, this means that real retail sales are showing positive results on a YoY basis, even if only by a modest amount.

This data isn’t necessarily strong.

It doesn’t show that the U.S. economy is impermeable.

But here’s the thing…

The economy doesn’t need to be perfect in order to support the uptrend in the stock market or in Bitcoin.

The economy only needs to be what it’s been capable of over the past 3 years…

It only needs to be resilient & dynamic.

And that’s exactly what this data shows.

In fact, with the disinflation narrative losing a bit of steam, the “resilient & dynamic” narrative appears to be picking up the slack and supporting the market.

As a result, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 had their highest weekly closes ever.

Both indices have achieved an all-time high close in 3 of the past 4 weeks.

Bitcoin is digesting its recent run to new all-time highs extremely well, currently trading above $118k, where it has traded in each of the past 9 trading sessions.

We continue to see strong dynamics with respect to its 21, 34, & 55-day EMAs, which is common during uptrends.

As we look at the weight of the evidence, we see clear proof that:

• The U.S. labor market is resilient & dynamic.

• The U.S. consumer is resilient & dynamic.

• The U.S. economy is resilient & dynamic.

• Stock prices are in clear uptrends.

• Bitcoin is in a clear uptrend.

Right here, right now, I have no choice to but to continue aligning with these developments and give myself the best chance at success in the market.

If you made it this far and you want to consider joining the premium membership, please use the link below to consider the best possible options for joining the team.

Best,

Caleb Franzen,
Founder of Cubic Analytics

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DISCLAIMER:

This report expresses the views of the author as of the date it was published, and are subject to change without notice. The author believes that the information, data, and charts contained within this report are accurate, but cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information.

The investment thesis, security analysis, risk appetite, and time frames expressed above are strictly those of the author and are not intended to be interpreted as financial advice. As such, market views covered in this publication are not to be considered investment advice and should be regarded as information only. The mention, discussion, and/or analysis of individual securities is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold said security.

Each investor is responsible to conduct their own due diligence and to understand the risks associated with any information that is reviewed. The information contained herein does not constitute and shouldn’t be construed as a solicitation of advisory services. Consult a registered financial advisor and/or certified financial planner before making any investment decisions.

Each investor is responsible to understand the investment risks of the market & individual securities, which is subjective and will also vary in terms of magnitude and duration.