Emergency Report: Time To Chill
Investors,
After being defensive (if not outright bearish in March & April), I was able to make a tactical adjustment back into the bullish camp at the following points:
Regained bullish stance on Bitcoin in mid-April at $85.7k (up +42.8% since)
Regained bullish stance on equities on May 2nd with S&P 500 at $5,660 (up +14%)
There were times to put the pedal to the metal, and investors got paid for taking those risks; however, I’ve personally been in the camp of just sitting on my hands and letting existing positions continue to work in this market environment.
My last Bitcoin purchases were in mid & late-March under $80k.
I generally haven’t bought any stocks in 2025, but I’ve made some marginal adjustments to the TradFi portfolio and stayed positioned in high-octane names.
As a result of this positioning, I’ve had my personal net worth make new ATHs throughout 2025, which reaffirms the tactical allocation decisions that I’ve made.
Throughout this period, I’ve encouraged individual investors to take their swings and focus on managing risk… and the results have produced a lot of wealth generation.
I did a podcast a few weeks back cautioning against putting the pedal to the metal!
Since that episode on Stock Market TV on July 28th, stocks and Bitcoin have both produced new ATHs; however, their current returns with today’s price action aren’t great…
S&P 500 +0.5%
Bitcoin -4.6%
So you might be asking, “Caleb, are you bullish or bearish here?”
The reality is that I’m neither, in the short-term.
I have some concerns, but I’m also forced to have my bias align with the trend.
And the reality is that we remain in firm uptrends, in both equities & crypto.
But here’s the thing…
Uptrends have two defining characteristics:
The production of higher highs
The production of higher lows
Considering that we’ve produced higher highs, I think it’s logical to be on alert for a brief (but potentially painful) risk-off period so that the markets can produce that higher low and get the continuation back to the upside.
With today’s price action and some of the market’s recent developments, I wanted to put together this ad-hoc report to highlight what I’m seeing and why you should pay attention.