Edition #171

Premium Market Analysis

Investors,

Since December 2021, it seems as though each of these newsletters has started along the lines of, “Markets continue to face downside pressure caused by higher interest rates & the withdrawal of monetary stimulus”. Unfortunately, this week is no different. On the surface level, I’m seeing more weakness in technology, consumer discretionary, small caps, and growth stocks as investors shift into defensive sectors (utilities, value, high dividend, consumer staples). This has generally been the theme of my research since November 2021 (short $ARKK), which was reaffirmed by my “Investment Outlook for 2022”, and strengthened by the analysis that I shared in Q1’2022.

In today’s newsletter, I’m going to share the key charts and significant levels I’m watching for the major stock market indexes. This will add more context to market sentiment, in combination with other data we’ll be discussing. More notably, we’ll focus on:

• Downside targets for the S&P 500 based on statistical indicators.

• Bull market performance throughout history.

• Market performance during midterm election years.

• Evidence of weakness. (Possible contrarian signal?)

• Under-the-hood S&P 500 metrics.

Let’s begin!

(Readers, I just finished writing this analysis and I truly think this is one of the most important publications I’ve written over the past year. If you haven’t already signed up to become a Premium Member and be eligible to read this research, I’d highly suggest taking advantage of the 10% discount I’m offering on subscriptions. The discount is available for monthly and annual subscriptions, effective for 1 year.)