Bitcoin vs. Everything Else
Plus a new signal just flashed!
Investors,
It really is Bitcoin vs. everything else… and Bitcoin keeps winning.
Just look at these two charts:
Top: Bitcoin relative to the S&P 500 (BTC/SPX)
Bottom: Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq-100 (BTC/NDX)
Those are new all-time highs on a relative basis, even though Bitcoin hasn’t made new ATHs on an absolute basis, highlighting BTC’s resilience during the February - April consolidation and it’s strength since the April 7 lows.
Does the production of new highs occur during uptrends or downtrends?
And as investors, do we want to align with trends or fight them?
There is only one valid answer to the first question… new highs occur during uptrends.
The second question might have some variability depending on the subjective nature of your specific investing style; however, in my 11 years as an investor, one of the key lessons that I’ve learned is that it’s significantly more profitable to align with trends.
This is why I’m generally not in the business of calling tops and bottoms.
It’s why I was bullish on BTC in January and February 2025, which we know (in hindsight) was a local top.
But I was also bullish in Q4’24, Q3’24, Q2’24, Q1’24, Q4’23, Q3’23, and so on…
Being bullish during uptrends is the name of the game.
As investors, we seek to create arbitrage, which can be done in two ways:
Buy low and sell high
Buy high and sell higher
So when we identify uptrends, via higher highs and higher lows, then we drastically improve our ability to align with that uptrend and benefit from the natural tailwinds to create that arbitrage.
This is why 80% of what I do is a “small-brain” assessment of trend, using a defined set of criteria to quantitatively determine whether or not an asset is an uptrend and on what timeframe.
That’s why I told investors in early-April that I’d flip from “defensive” to “outright bullish” if Bitcoin could reclaim its key moving averages, which occurred on April 20:
Since that breakout, Bitcoin has rallied from $85.7k to $104.9k in 3 weeks.
That’s a gain of nearly +23%, during a period where the S&P 500 has gained +7%.
Additionally, the S&P 500 hasn’t been able to achieve the same structural breakout!
If you had any doubt about which is the fastest horse in the race, you have an answer.
Now it’s up to you to decide whether or not you’re going to align with it or fight it.
The market is speaking, but it’s your responsibility to listen.
In the rest of this report, I’ll share my favorite Bitcoin signal that just flashed. I’ll also talk more about what I’m seeing in the altcoin market and the stock market, highlighting some of the opportunities and scenarios that I’m envisioning.
My Favorite Bitcoin Signal:
In March, I shared one of my favorite signals & warned how it might flash soon.
Like always, I try to share bullish criteria before they happen and forecast the significance of the potential signal so that I’m prepared for it, if/when it does happen.
I also do the same for bearish criteria!
This also ensures that YOU’RE prepared for it, which is the entire point of my research — to maximize our opportunities in the market. The fact of the matter is, I want you to benefit from my experience in the market, my 11 years of dedication to trading, and the tips and tricks that I’ve picked up along the way.
Today, I’m excited to share with you that this Bitcoin signal officially triggered.
Here it is and here’s why you need to know about it…