Aren't You Having Fun?
Investors,
Did everyone have fun this week?
I hope that you are, but in the same way… I also hope that you aren’t.
Let me explain.
There are only two people who didn’t have fun:
The investors who are bearish & aren’t taking advantage of the bull market.
The investors who are participating in the upside, but with a Stoic approach.
So if you aren’t having fun in this bull market, I genuinely hope it’s because you fall into category #2. I’ve done everything that I can to get people out of category #1.
Admittedly, I’m having less fun than most, because I’ve been here and done this before. I know what the signs of a bull market look like, which is why I became so aggressively bullish in April/May 2023, despite predicting a recession just a few months earlier.
I mean hey, how can you have fun when you have high expectations and the market is simply meeting (or even underperforming) those expectations?
Remember, my Bitcoin cycle target is at least $175,000 per coin.
So when we’re trading at $99k, I’m actually underwhelmed.
Sure, we’re tracking towards my target…
But Bitcoin still needs to gain +77% to get there.
As an FYI, BTC is up +77% since September 9th, 2024.
Read that again.
So maybe I’ll be having some actual fun in a few months if this rally becomes exponential and we wake up with BTC trading above $180k in Q1 2025.
But this isn’t just a Bitcoin story… not even remotely.
I’ve said, “when the music’s playing, you gotta dance”.
And I’ve been dancing for 18+ months.
I was admittedly several months late to this bull market, but better late than never.
Since April 1st, 2023 (roughly the start of when I became an outspoken bull after being bearish in 2022), look at the returns for the following major assets:
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) +246.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) +33.2%
S&P 500 ($SPX) +45.25%
Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) +57.6%
Russell 2000 ($RUT) +33.5%
Value stocks ($VTV) +30.3%
Growth stocks ($VUG) +62.1%
Great things continue to happen at the index level, which is only possible when great things are happening to individual stocks across the board, in a wide range of market caps, sectors, industries, and investment themes.
Do you think that the financial services company that created the S&P 500, S&P Global ($SPGI), is up +49.5% over the same time period because we’re in an AI bubble?
Do you think that waste management companies like Republic Services Inc. ($RSG) are up +60.3% over the same time period because only 7 stocks are going up?
Do you think that alternative asset management companies like Brookfield Corporation ($BN) are up +78.9% because we’re in a weak market environment?
Thankfully, due to hard work and the ability to sniff out strong opportunities in “boring businesses”, I’ve owned all three of these stocks over the past 18 months and been able to generate epic returns for myself and for the premium members of Cubic Analytics who knew that I owned them and when I was buying them.
If you want to know every single stock that I own and my weekly portfolio purchases, consider joining the premium team, as this is a key benefit that members receive:
Right now, the music is still playing… and I’m still dancing.
That’s why I continue to write in-depth research every single week, analyzing broader macro and market conditions, in order to determine if this is still the right environment to keep dancing.
Conditions can change quickly, which is why it’s important to be objective and also forward-thinking and adaptable.
I’m going to keep this report short, sharing three charts for the three main pillars of my research. I named my publication “Cubic Analytics” for a reason, after all.
Macroeconomics:
This is technically a stock market chart because it involves the S&P 500, but this is really just a “bottom-up” macro datapoint to have in our back pockets.
What exactly are we looking at here?
The percentage of companies within the S&P 500 that are experiencing positive YoY earnings growth, which now stands at 77.1%.
One thing that stands out to me is that this datapoint bottomed at the start of 2023 and has steadily risen every since… which therefore illustrates the strong fundamentals helping to drive this market higher.
If more companies are experiencing earnings growth, doesn’t that tell us good things are happening in the economy? Notice how the percentage tends to drop before and during recessions, which therefore suggests that the ongoing uptrends invalidates the idea that we’re either in a recession or on the precipice of one?
This is a basic, but important, economic metric that continues to tell us that the music is still playing and that we should keep dancing.
Stock Market:
As we think about the sustainability of this bull market, it’s important to recognize that we are objectively in the early stages of an uptrend, based on historical evidence.
Given that the current bull market is “only” 25 months old vs. the historical average of 67 months, the data clearly suggests that there’s plenty of gas left in the tank if we’re going to match the historical precedence. Even if we exclude the bull markets that started in December 1987 and March 2009, the average of the 9 other bull markets is 50 months, which still suggests that we’re currently halfway through this bull market.
Bitcoin:
We’re right on schedule.
That’s all I have to say.
Best,
Caleb Franzen,
Founder of Cubic Analytics
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DISCLAIMER:
This report expresses the views of the author as of the date it was published, and are subject to change without notice. The author believes that the information, data, and charts contained within this report are accurate, but cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information.
The investment thesis, security analysis, risk appetite, and time frames expressed above are strictly those of the author and are not intended to be interpreted as financial advice. As such, market views covered in this publication are not to be considered investment advice and should be regarded as information only. The mention, discussion, and/or analysis of individual securities is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold said security.
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I was looking way too hard at the final chart, then I kept it simple and realized that a 5th grader could see what’s happening.
The S&P is one of the slowest instruments for growing money. Yes, patience is the best, but ain't nobody got time for that.