An Important Signal Just Flashed

Investors,

I’m going to share an important new signal that just flashed in this report, but first…

We’ve been in a bull market for at least 12 months, depending which criteria you use:

• If you believe that bull markets start at the depths of the bear market lows, then this current bull market started in October 2022 and is now 18 months old.

• If you believe that bull markets start after gaining +20% from the bear market lows, then this current bull market started in May 2023 and is now 12 months old.

• If you believe that bull markets start when the list of new 52-week lows peak, a sign of maximum pain, then this current bull market started in June 2022 and is now 23 months old.

Either way, we know for a fact that we’re currently in a bull market and that asset prices have been trending higher for at least 12 months.

Therefore, this basic recognition forces us to ask, “how long can this bull market last?”

The simple (and honest) answer is that no one knows.

The bull market will last for as long as it wants, or as long as conditions that facilitate bull market trends remain in place… but again, no one knows how long that will be.

Nonetheless, we try our best to use historical data as a guideline to set expectations and develop min/max scenarios in order to plan for a wide range of potential outcomes. According to this table from Carson Investment Research, the average bull market since 1950 has lasted for 57.6 months, just shy of 5 years.

Interestingly, 6 of the 13 bull markets since 1950 started in the month of October.

In those individual cases, the average length of the bull market was 57.9 months, nearly identical to the average of the entire dataset. Therefore, with the current bull market being 18 months old (measured from the bear market lows), the implication is that the momentum of the uptrend could persist for quite some time.

If we remove the longest and the shortest bull markets, 131.5 months and 21.4 months, then the average bull market length is 57.7 months, so the objective implications is that bull markets, regardless of their start date, last for nearly 5 years.

To match the average bull market length, this current bull market would need to last for another ~30 months, ending in Q4 2026.

This isn’t a prediction, but simply a recognition of historical data.

As I said, the bull market will last for however long it wants and no analysis or dataset can reliably/consistently predict when the bull market will end; however, I believe that this is a useful exercise and a key piece of information to have in our back pocket.

In the remainder of this report, exclusive for premium members of Cubic Analytics, I’ll cover the following topics:

• A new S&P 500 study that I’m sharing for the 1st time, which flashed on Friday.

• Sharing all of the stocks/ETFs that I purchased this week, and why.

• In-depth analysis of the internal metrics of the S&P 500.

Let’s begin.