A Challenging Contrast
Investors,
On March 27, I told the bulls to “show me”, but they failed and the S&P 500 fell -15%.
On April 12, I called on the bulls to “prove it” and produce a comeback.
As I said at the time, I wanted to be bullish but I needed to see evidence of bullish behavior and an improvement in the objective indicators.
This time, the bulls have answered my call.
The cavalry has arrived, but now they need to win the battle.
The S&P 500 is now trading at its highest levels since April 2, 2025; however, the index is still down -10.2% from its all-time highs in mid-February.
On a YoY basis, the index has generated a return of +9.5%.
So is the market actually as chaotic as the headlines want us to believe?
Or is it like I said in that same April 12 report — that “extremes are normal”?
There’s a challenging contrast between a market that is both historically challenging with extreme readings and rare signals, but also completely normal in terms of returns.
The purpose of this premium report is to provide an update on the criteria that would make me bullish on equities once again, particularly in an environment where Bitcoin has already triggered its bullish criteria. When we rely on objective criteria to adapt our outlook, we can have a bias and an invalidation criteria to change our bias, if/when the weight of the evidence changes.
One of the key phrases that I’ve cherished over the years and repeated as often as I can is the following:
“It’s okay to be wrong, but it isn’t okay to stay wrong”
So, knowing that we’re going to be wrong often in our careers as investors, it’s vital to be able to adapt and flex with an ever-changing market environment and new risks.
This is why criteria are so vital for my success as an investor.
I build an outlook, based on data, and understand how/when my outlook will be invalidated to ensure that I won’t stay wrong for long.
If you want to stay on the right side of this market, alongside me and the other 1,070+ premium members of Cubic Analytics, then this report is for you…