The majority of market participants still misunderstand the macro environment.

They keep citing cracks in the labor market, rising default rates, the consumer’s dependency on credit card spending, and an increasing whirlwind about private credit.

But we need to focus on the things that actually matter.

Because the fact is that we are not armchair economists.

We are not here to pontificate about policy or to magnify niche data.

We are investors, trying to make money in the market via arbitrage.

It’s why, despite having a degree in economics, I often say that the majority of investors need to ignore macroeconomic data because of the fact that the stock market is NOT the economy (I just talked about this topic last week).

Most investors fail to understand this basic point…

The economy doesn’t need to be good/strong in order for the bull market to stay intact.

The economy only needs to be good enough to support the ongoing bull market.

It’s the same reason why stocks don’t bottom on good news…

They bottom on less worse news, once the market determines that there’s more bad news in the rearview mirror than the potential for bad news on the road ahead.

If you don’t believe me, just look at the ongoing rally since the March 2026 lows.

The Nasdaq-100 has gained +33% in these past two months, and yet:

• There is no peace deal

• The Straight of Hormuz is closed

• There is potential escalation with Cuba

• Inflation is reaccelerating at a meaningful pace

• Consumer confidence is making new all-time lows

Risks are still present, we’d all agree.

But one of the key things that I’ve learned in my 13-year career is this…

Risks are ALWAYS present.

If you’re waiting to invest (or only willing to stay invested) until you see a sign from the heavens that there are no more negative catalysts coming down the pipeline, I wish you all the best.

Instead, we need to recognize the following:

Real GDP growth for Q1’26, while revised lower from the initial estimate of +2.0% quarter-over-quarter annualized, came in at +1.6% annualized growth.

This isn’t going to knock anyone’s socks off… but it’s still indicative of an economic expansion, even after adjusting for inflation.

But as we’ve discussed in the past, I’ve always believed that QoQ annualized growth is a flawed metric and I actually prefer to analyze real GDP growth on a YoY basis.

When we use this lens, we see the following:

Real GDP growth in Q1’26 was +2.6% YoY, a notable acceleration vs. the YoY growth rate in Q4’25 of +2.0%.

Additionally, does this reacceleration look anything like the environment that preceded the recessions in 1990, 2001, or 2008?

Absolutely not!

In fact, the growth trajectory for real GDP looks more reminiscent of the choppy (but stable) oscillation coming out of the Great Recession, from 2010-2019.

Throw in the fact that Redbook retail sales jumped to +9.0% YoY, showing that same-store consumption is growing at an epic pace.

Yes, this +9.0% figure is nominal, but I found this super interesting…

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In this report, I’m going to share a new study for Bitcoin that hasn’t flashed yet…

But it’s one that you need to be prepared for, if it does happen, which could be soon.

I’ve been buying Bitcoin again.

Let me explain why.

After flipping bearish in November 2025 on the breakdown below $97k, caused by the invalidation below the 2-day 200 moving average cloud, I urged the need for patience.

What we know for a fact is that Bitcoin bear markets can be brutal.

And I told investors that I’d rather be a samurai in a garden than a gardener on the battlefield… so I prepared for the worst and hoped for the best.

From a quantitative view, I needed to see a few things to get an “all clear” to buy.

First and foremost was a reclaim back above the 2-day 200 MA cloud. This would invalidate my “new bear market” thesis and signal that the market was fine and that price action could resume higher again.

But as many of you know… that bullish signal hasn’t happened, at least not yet.

My logic at the time was simple… if Bitcoin stays below the 2-day 200 MA cloud, then the path of least resistance is for price to go down further.

But how much further?

Every Bitcoin bear market had at least retested its 200-week moving average cloud.

So I established that as a key starting point to accumulate.

When the market tanked again in January and February 2026, guess what happened?

Bitcoin retested that 4-year moving average!

That’s why I started buying at $67.2k in early February.

And so far, it’s defended that range successfully.

By the way, all of this was laid out in real-time in my Bear Market Playbook report, which I published in November, which was literally designed to forecast bear market behavior and prepare investors for multiple methods to ensure their survival & Bitcoin accumulation.

I had even more confidence to buy at $67.2k due to a 2nd signal that was flashing at the same time, which I also forecasted in the BMP:

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This is the full ~2 hour recording of today’s livestream!

The presentation portion of the call (roughly the first 20 minutes) was extremely important, so I encourage you to watch that portion and then skip to the relevant sections from the Q&A that are applicable to you.

You’ll find the AI-generated summary of the livestream below, courtesy of Gemini:

Summary (5 key points):

Semiconductor Sector Exhibits Renewed Technical Strength:

The semiconductor sector, including key holdings like Broadcom (AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), is showing renewed strength after a period of cooling. Caleb emphasized that TSM continues to exhibit a stairstep pattern and a V-shaped recovery, successfully digesting previous upward moves. For Nvidia, the 161.8% extension remains a primary target, with any downside reaction to upcoming earnings potentially creating a favorable breakout retest setup. The conclusion is to remain comfortable with current momentum for long-term positions, leveraging significant gains by selectively capturing profits while allowing the remainder to run.

Bitcoin: Navigating Bear Market Risks and Accumulation Strategy:

The core Bitcoin strategy is long-term stacking, with Caleb personally buying twice near $76,700 and recommending dollar-cost averaging for others while the price is below Q4 lows (~81,000). The consensus from Caleb is that Bitcoin is in a bear market defined by downtrends and mean reversion, making preparation for downside scenarios crucial, particularly if the price falls below November 2025 lows, which would be a long-term accumulation signal.

Macro Environment Does Not Indicate an Imminent Market Top:

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Am I the only one who feels completely relaxed in this market, regardless of outcome?

If the market digests this historic rally, I’m absolutely fine with that.

In fact, I’ll use it to find attractive opportunities along key moving averages and structural support zones in order to allocate even more capital into the winning bull market themes.

And if the market continues to gain even more upside momentum?

I’ll let my winners continue to win.

There’s no need to stress about either scenario if either scenario is welcomed!

I’m seeing so many investors question if this rally is sustainable…

Some are shouting that it’s a bubble, implying the need to sell everything.

Some are shouting that the bubble’s just starting, implying the need to buy everything.

Each side is as loud as the other.

But I’ll let you in on a secret…

It literally doesn’t matter.

Both sides are trying to invoke a significant emotional response, based on fear.

One side is trying to make you fear that you’ll lose it all if you stay invested.

The other side is trying to make you fear the opportunity cost if you miss it.

Newsflash: no one knows if it’s a bubble or not.

The only thing we do know, for a fact, is that stocks are still in a bull market.

And we also know this…

Bull markets have consolidations, in order to produce higher highs & higher lows.

That’s why we describe uptrends as exhibiting “stair-step” behavior…

Because they literally look like this:

And we see this exact behavior across the entire stock market, across all timeframes.

Just look at growth stocks, as represented by $VUG:

Then look at the other side of the equation for value stocks, as represented by $VTV:

I’m hearing, once again, that only 7 stocks are going up…

If that was the case, then why did the equal-weight S&P 500 ($RSP) make ATHs?

Then they’re telling me that only technology is going up…

Sure, whether we think about large-cap tech or small-cap tech, they’re at ATHs!

But do you know what else is also true?

The S&P 500 ex-Technology ETF ($SPXT) made new all-time highs too.

“But Caleb, it’s only the S&P 500 and its constituents that are doing so well!”

False.

If that was true, then why is the Dow Jones hovering at all-time highs, up +17.8% YoY?

Or what about the Russell 2000, which is up +34% YoY?

And let’s be real… does the Russell 2000 actually look bubble-ish to you?

It’s up +25% in the past 5 years & experienced two drawdowns of -30% in that window.

Or let’s look at the most objective index possible, the Value Line Arithmetic Index, which is literally designed to represent the performance of the average stock in the U.S. equity market.

It’s difficult for me to classify the entire market as being a bubble when the bull market since late-2022 can be represented so perfectly in a linear regression channel.

Aren’t bubbles supposed to be exuberant?

Aren’t they supposed to be exponential?

Aren’t they supposed to… look, you get the point.

This doesn’t look like that.

But this is where it starts to get fun.

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It’s the sign of the times, isn’t it?

Yesterday, I asked you to submit tickers for a chart request.

I’m overjoyed by your enthusiasm and the degree of excitement in the market.

It’s special to live through historic market periods… we’re going to talk about this in the future and people will write about this bull market in the history books.

And we’re lucky enough to be active participants.

So let’s make it count.

That’s been the name of the game that I’ve continued to reiterate over the years.

I didn’t know how long the equity bull market would last when I flipped outright bullish on U.S. stocks in March/April 2023, but (even during my periods of caution), I’ve made the basic point that we are in a bull market right now.

And, believe it or not, the whole point of being an investor is to own assets that go up.

Bull markets are the environment that give us the best chance to achieve that goal.

Plain and simple.

As premium members, you’ve submitted over 150+ tickers for me to review.

I’m going to do that in this post.

Chart by chart, ticker by ticker, level by level, indicator by indicator.

You asked, I’m going to deliver.

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This is the full ~2 hour recording of yesterday’s livestream!

The presentation portion of the call (roughly the first 20 minutes) was extremely important, so I encourage you to watch that portion and then skip to the relevant sections from the Q&A that are applicable to you.

You’ll find the AI-generated summary of the livestream below, courtesy of Gemini:

Summary:

Dynamic Market Support Strategies

Utilizing dynamic support levels like moving averages outperformed waiting for structural retests in 2025. Investors should prioritize established uptrend characteristics over rigid structural entry points. Through his experience, Caleb highlighted the need to move beyond only using structural support levels for entries, especially if the market never returns to that level. He introduced the concept of “dynamic support,” using moving averages like the 21, 55, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) in addition to structural levels.

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There is zero risk appetite in the crypto ecosystem right now.

And if rising risk appetite is a key characteristic of an uptrend and bull market, then the absence of rising risk appetite can only mean one thing… crypto’s bear market is not over.

Let me repeat… crypto’s bear market is NOT over.

So let me prove that risk appetite is nowhere to be found.

First of all, look at Ethereum relative to Bitcoin (ETHBTC):

It’s been trading back below its 200-day moving average cloud since January 2026 and peaked nearly a year ago, back in August 2025 after (unsuccessfully) ending its multi-year downtrend.

And while I’m aware that Bitcoin was able to rally and sustain a strong bull market in 2023, 2024, and 2025 while ETHBTC was in a downtrend, it’s less than ideal if Bitcoin is going down AND Ethereum relative to Bitcoin is falling at the same time.

So if we have quantifiable evidence that ETHBTC is falling (because it is), then we have at least one datapoint to prove that risk appetite within the crypto ecosystem is poor.

One datapoint isn’t enough to make such a comprehensive and concrete statement.

What matters is the weight of the evidence…

So what does the other data show?

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I have some things on my mind this morning as I wake up with crude > $90/barrel.

Let’s think through the “game theory” on this, shall we?

Chronologically, I reference several charts throughout this 22-minute recording.

These are the charts:

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Last week, I shared 4 new studies that quantifiably proved two key developments:

1. The stock market is overheated/extended/overbought.

2. Those overbought conditions confirm that the bull market is intact.

Therefore, if equities are objectively still in a bull market, then the path of least resistance is for stocks to trend higher over a variety of timeframes.

And, by the way, there isn’t a debate on the first point…

You can ask a bear and they will scream that the market is extended.

You can ask a bull and they will also admit that the market is extended.

Everyone agrees on this.

The disagreement exists in the conclusion.

But at the end of the day, bears are going to default to their bias and bulls will do the exact same, irrespective of the data.

So who can you trust, if anyone at all?

That’s why I just prioritize and focus on the data.

Naturally, I have a bias… I think corporate earnings will trend higher over the long run and the Fed will debase the dollar, thereby resulting in asset price inflation.

In short, dollar-denominated assets will likely trend higher.

Gold, Treasuries, real estate, stocks, Bitcoin, you name it.

But the data controls my intermediate outlook on market conditions and it allows me to adapt and even optimize my investing schedule to align with my long-term bias.

If we agree that the market is extended, it’s our responsibility to understand what the implications are and simultaneously recognize that historical data doesn’t guarantee future returns, BUT historical data is the best indicator for future returns.

And at the end of the day, that’s all we can ask for…

To use historical data and tilt the odds just slightly in our favor.

Let’s begin…

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